samedi 30 avril 2016
Un smartphone piloté par des Google Glass : pour les malvoyants et les autres
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Premier lancement d'un Soyouz au nouveau cosmodrome de Vostotchny
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Contre la leucémie, un nouveau traitement affiche 93 % de réussite
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Des drones livreurs viennent servir des golfeurs au Japon
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Le satellite Microscope rentrera sur Terre à la voile
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vendredi 29 avril 2016
Friday frenzy for Freeport
Shares in Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) rocketed 10.7% on Friday, boosted by a firm oil and copper price, better than expected financial results and good operational news from its South American mines.
Volumes were simply massive with more than 74 million shares changing hands on the day, making it the third most actively traded stock on the New York Stock Exchange.
The Phoenix-based company, world number two copper producer behind Chile's state-owned Codelco in terms of output, is now worth $17.5 billion after more than doubling in value since the start of the year. Measured from its January low the stock is up 274%.
It's been a good week for Freeport. The company announced on Friday that agreement had been reached with striking workers at its 51%-owned El Abra mine in Chile which produced roughly 147,000 tonnes copper last year.
On Thursday news from its Peruvian Cerro Verde mine also buoyed investors who were already piling into the stock following the financial results. Freeport said after a $4.6 billion expansion project at Cerro Verde production at the mine nearly tripled in the first quarter.
If production continues at the first quarter pace the mine will produce close to 600,000 tonnes of metal this year, catapulting it to the number two position of the world's largest copper mines behind Chile's Escondida, majority-owned by BHP Billiton.
On Tuesday, Freeport reported a smaller than expected loss and higher copper production in the first quarter and predicted full year sales in 2016 of about 5 billion pounds of copper, 1.85 million ounces of gold, 71 million pounds of molybdenum and 54.4 barrels of oil equivalent.
Freeport intends to sell a 13% stake in the Morenci mine in Arizona (at 463,000 tonnes last year the fifth largest mine in the world) and an interest in its Timok exploration project in Serbia for consideration of $1.3 billion.
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More iron ore price madness as China's mom-and-pops pile in
On Friday the Northern China benchmark iron ore price jumped to $65.20 per dry metric tonne (62% Fe CFR Tianjin port) bringing gains since Wednesday to 7.8% as commodity investment fever grips Chinese investors. Last week iron ore hit a 16-month high following an 11% jump over just two trading days according to data supplied by The Steel Index.
The steelmaking raw material has enjoyed a 52% rise in 2016 and a 76%-plus recovery from nine-year lows reached mid-December. On the Dalian Commodities Exchange the price swings are much wilder.
Despite a clampdown on rogue traders, higher margin requirements and trading fees, circuit breakers on Dalian iron ore futures to curb excessive price movement were triggered for the umpteenth time on Friday. That's despite the exchange in northeast China "temporarily" upping the daily price change limit to 6%. The most traded contract ended Friday at its highs, exchanging hands for 462 yuan or $71.40 a tonne, duly up 5.97% on the day.
Some commentators pointed out that the financial churn on these contracts approached levels of trade seen on the S&P 500 in mid-April
The first signs that the fundamentals of the physical iron ore trade was no longer much of a factor driving prices came on March 7. The TSI benchmark price surged 19.5% in a single day – in absolute terms the day-on-day rise was roughly half of the price of contracted iron ore during the early 2000s under the old annual contract system.
While price movements are stomach-churning, the volumes traded are simply insane. After a very subdued launch scarcely two-and-half years ago, daily Dalian iron ore futures volumes surpassed one billion tonnes for the first time in March. That figure compares to the annual global seaborne trade of around 1.3 billion tonnes. Volumes are up 400% from a year ago.
In April the value of iron ore tonnes bought and sold was more than 2 trillion yaun or $329 billion (the exchange counts both sides of a trade so the Dalian numbers show double that). And that's down from $477 billion in March.
A fascinating blog post by Ciaran Roe, global markets specialist for metals and mining at S&P Global Platts, points to another factor that makes iron ore and steel trading in China so different. Analysis by the Commonwealth Bank of Australia shows average time a futures contract is held on Dalian and the Shanghai Futures Exchange for rebar is "in and around the four hour mark."
Risks to investors—both individual/retail and institutional—are clearly high, but so are the risks of misreading the data coming out of China
That compares to around 60 hours for the Comex copper contract or around 70 hours for Nymex natural gas in New York. Coupled with the low levels of open interest it's clear that "speculative positions are the norm for ferrous contracts listed in China" says Roe:
Some commentators pointed out that the financial churn on these contracts approached levels of trade seen on the S&P 500 in mid-April.
Another defining feature of Chinese financial markets is the high percentage of retail investors. A whopping 80% of investors buy and sell stocks on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets using their own accounts. On US markets that figure is less than 14%. Many of these mom-and-pop investors who had fingers burned shifted their attention from the country’s equity markets to commodity derivatives.
While the plunge on the Shanghai and Shenzen stock exchange had limited effect elsewhere in the world, six out of the world’s ten most active commodity contracts are now traded in Shanghai, Dalian and Zhengzhou.
Roe concludes that the full effects of the feverish retail derivatives trading in China has not been felt on physical markets, not yet anyway:
The exchanges, and by proxy the Chinese government, is aware of the dangers of having hugely volatile futures markets, which some claim have been on occasion more or less disconnected from underlying physical fundamentals.
Risks to investors—both individual/retail and institutional—are clearly high, but so are the risks of misreading the data coming out of China on such a strategic local industry as steel.
Who is to say that some of the surge in China’s steel prices—which prompted a global price recovery in the last two months—is not linked in part to sentiment of individual investors in China?
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RBC wants over $7 million for job that didn’t do: Crew Gold
The Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), the country’s biggest bank, is suing former client Crew Gold, a subsidiary of Russian miner Nordgold (LON:NORD), over a US$7.12 million fee the lender was supposed to obtain for selling all or a substantial portion of the gold producer to a third party in 2010.
In the trial, to begin late May in the Ontario Superior Court of Justice, Crew Gold representatives will claim the company has no obligation to pay the so call “success fee”, as RBC was not involved in the firm’s final sale.
The trial, to begin late May in the Ontario Superior Court of Justice, could spark a major revision of the terms by which miners engage with investments banks.
The case, which could spark a major revision of the terms by which miners engage with investments banks, centers on whether or not RBC should be granted the amount for a sale that was executed by the miner’s majority shareholders, without Crew Gold or the bank’s involvement.
Months after recruiting RBC late in 2008, Crew Gold — then listed in Toronto and Oslo — decided to do an equity swap, which changed the make-up of its board and shareholders.
The new corporate structure included a controlling block held by GLG Partners, a fund manager, which decided to sell its stake without the involvement of either the company or RBC, Crew Gold says according to court documents seen by MINING.com.
The engagement letter with the RBC, the company’s representatives add, was only signed in Dec. 2009, when the swap was almost completed and several potential buyers had already approached Crew Gold’s majority holders.
Three months later, Crew Gold received an invoice from RBC for $2 million, which was later replaced by an invoice for $7.12 million, which the miner has refused to pay.
So far, Norgold’s subsidiary has given RBC US$150,000 for work fees corresponding to the August 2009-January 2010 period.
Crew Gold’s flagship operation was the LEFA gold mine in Guinea, with reserves of about 3 million ounces and resources of 5.2 million ounces.
Nordgold, which spun off of Russian steelmaker Severstal in 2012, collected many of its major assets during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, including its takeover of the Crew Gold and Canadian miner High River Gold, with assets in Burkina Faso and Russia.
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Uranium producer Cameco posts surprise first-quarter adjusted loss
Uranium miner Cameco (TSX:CCO) reported Friday an adjusted loss for its first quarter financial results as both prices and demand remains low, which has forced the Canadian company to lower its output forecast for the year.
While the Saskatoon-based miner sees a bright long-term future for nuclear power, it noted it's been challenging so far for the uranium market.
As a result, it posted a loss oft $408 million as compared to $566 million in 2015, or 2 cents per share versus 18 cents per share in 2015.
Sales dropped 16% to 5.9 million pounds in the quarter, with the average realized price per pound down 3%.
After being one of the best performing commodities in 2015 in terms of prices, uranium has been having a terrible year so far.
The firm’s new production forecast for the year is now 25.7 million pounds, down from the 30 million pounds previously estimated. Output was 28.4 million pounds in 2015.
Last week, Cameco announced it was suspending production at its Rabbit Lake operation in Saskatchewan, as well as and slashing output in the US and at McArthur River, Saskatchewan, the world’s biggest uranium mine.
After being one of the best performing commodities in 2015 in terms of prices, uranium has been having a terrible year so far. The nuclear fuel is down roughly 25% in 2016 with the UxC broker average price sitting at $27.50 a pound as of April 25. That's one of the lowest prices uranium has been in the last decade.
Five years after the Fukushima disaster in Japan, only two of the country's 50 nuclear reactors are back on line. In other developed markets, such as France and Germany, nuclear power is also in retreat.
Stockpiles at utilities were estimated at an already elevated 217,000 tonnes uranium at the end of 2014. That translates into more than three years' worth of feedstock for the world's installed nuclear power capacity.
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Séisme en Charente-Maritime : quelles sont les causes possibles ?
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NASA unveils gold-covered telescope that will put the Hubble to shame
NASA has finally unveiled the giant successor to the Hubble Space Telescope, the James Webb, which is equipped with a collapsible honeycomb-like mirror made of 18 gleaming, gold-covered pieces.
Scheduled to be launched in 2018, the $10 billion tennis-court-sized telescope is the result of a joint effort involving NASA, the European Space Agency and the Canadian Space Agency.
Ball Aerospace optical technician Scott Murray inspects the first gold primary mirror segment. (Image provided by NASA)
Each coffee table-sized mirror segment, weighing roughly 46 pounds (21kg), is made from beryllium and is coated with a fine film of vaporized gold to optimize the reflection of infrared light.
Rendering of the James Webb Space Telescope. (Image by Northrop Grumman | NASA )
The James Webb telescope has been described as a 'time machine' that could help unravel the secrets of our cosmos.
Unlike The Hubble, the new instrument will look in the infrared part of the spectrum, instead of capturing visible light. This will allow it to better see through clouds of gas and dust, where stars are being born, which should give us a view farther back to the beginning of the universe.
Standing tall and glimmering gold inside NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center's clean room in Greenbelt, Maryland (Image provided by NASA)
Once launched, the James Webb will be the world's biggest and most powerful telescope, capable of peering back 200 million years after the Big Bang.
Learn more about The James Webb telescope in the video below:
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Le noyau de la Terre vieillit moins vite que nous, à cause d'Einstein
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Gold prices soar to hit seven-week high
Gold prices kept building on recent gains Friday, hitting a seven-week high overnight on fresh safe-haven demand triggered by the Bank of Japan's decision Thursday to held fire on more monetary stimulus, which weighed on stock markets and the dollar.
Spot gold was up 0.7% at $1,274.52 an ounce in early London trading, having earlier peaked at $1,280.60 an ounce. U.S. gold futures for June delivery were up $11.20 an ounce at $1,277.60. Silver, in turn, climbed 1.4% to $17.77 an ounce, its highest since January last year.
This week alone, the precious yellow metal has climbed 3.5% percent and if Friday’s early gains held it would be gold’s biggest weekly jump since the week ended Feb. 12.
(Courtesy of Kitco.com)
Some, such as RBC Capital Markets, argue that the price rally should be approached with caution, especially following the latest GFMS report, which showed soft physical demand.
"Despite the investor led rally in gold prices at the beginning of the year, the lack of physical follow-through is a fundamental reason for why we think sustained gold bulls will be disappointed by year-end," wrote RBC's Helima Croft and team in a note Thursday. "Absent a large and unforeseen risk-off move driving gold higher, we think that prices likely have already peaked this year."
Silver investors are more bullish than that. The metal has gained 15% this month and is on track for its biggest monthly increase since August 2013.
Deutsche Bank in a recent research note, said based on historical trends of the relationship between the two metals silver could break $20 an ounce in the near term:
"In our view, a near-term catalyst to drive gold higher is not obvious, but we think the metal remains well supported. The long – term gold silver ratio (since 1973) is 57.7. The more recent range is however 85 during the depths of the global financial crisis to 35 during the period of recovery and unprecedented Quantitative Easing.
"If gold stays relatively range bound at $1,250/oz, a silver rerating to 66.6 (the average 1983 – 2003), the silver could trade up to $18.8/oz, and a silver rerating to 61.1 (the average since 2003), then silver could trade as high as $20.5/oz."
(Courtesy of Kitco.com)
The German investment bank is not alone in predicting a rosy outlook for the silver price. Analysts with Bank of America Merrill Lynch on Tuesday raised their 2016 average prices forecast for 2015 to $16.47 (year to date silver is averaging $15.18) saying silver's fundamentals look the strongest in years thanks to declining mine output and rising industrial demand.
Only around 30% of global output is from primary silver mines, less than the contribution of by-product production at zinc and lead mines where a number of mine closures are in the offing. The bulk of silver usage is also in industrial applications including alloys, electronics, photovoltaic and for the production of ethylene oxide.
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Les conducteurs adeptes de Waze pourraient être espionnés
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Étonnant : les grands animaux protègent le climat
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Voie lactée : l'archéologie galactique progresse en attendant Gaia
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jeudi 28 avril 2016
Chile's cheerless outlook for copper price
In New York trade on Thursday copper for delivery in July continued to drift lower as top producer Chile painted a mixed picture for the metal.
July copper futures were lasting trading at $2.27 per pound, just holding onto the psychologically important $5,000 a tonne level. The price of copper is up solid 17.2% from a seven-year low hit mid-January.
The Chilean Copper Commission cut its prediction for global refined copper demand this year from 2.3% to 1.8% as Chinese consumption representing nearly half of the global total continues to moderate.
A 35% surge in production from Peru and huge jumps in Mexico and Indonesia which will more than offset declines in the DRC and static output in Chile
The government forecaster also expects supply to increase by a substantial 5.1% or 985,000 tonnes this year to 20.25 million million tonnes, much faster than the body expected at the start of the year.
The increase in output will be mainly on the back of a 35% surge in production from Peru and huge jumps in Mexico and Indonesia which will offset declines in the DRC and static output in Chile, which produces nearly 30% of the world's copper. 2017 will see a further jump of 2.9%.
A 4% drop in available scrap copper to around 3.6 million will be enough according to Cochilco to result in a smaller market surplus this year of 140,000 tonnes compared with the 198,000 tonnes it forecast in January. While still in oversupply 2017's predicted excess tonnage was slashed to 92,000 tonnes, from 168,000 previously.
Cochilco is sticking to its downbeat price forecast for 2016 of $2.15 a pound ($4,740 a tonne) rising only slightly to $2.20 next year ($4,850). That compares to a 2015 average of $2.49 or $5,490.
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Kyrgyz law enforcement agencies search Centerra Gold’s office
Canada's Centerra Gold (TSX:CG) said Thursday prosecutors and other state law enforcement agencies conducted a search at the Bishkek offices of its unit Kumtor Gold.
The Toronto-based company, which operates Kyrgyzstan's largest gold mine Kumtor, said authorities claimed to be looking for documents related to alleged financial violations by its local unit.
Authorities are looking into a dividend paid by Kumtor to Centerra in 2013, which the miner says complied with the country's laws and 2009 agreements governing the project.
Kumtor, which lies near the Chinese border at an altitude of 4,000 metres, has been a source of political tension in the impoverished country.
For more than two years the Central Asian nation and the gold miner have been in talks on a deal to swap the government’s 32.7% stake in Centerra for half of a joint venture that would control the Kumtor gold mine.
Kyrgyzstan's authorities had recently reached Centerra to reiterate their dissatisfaction with current arrangements governing the project. They had also voiced their concern about a dividend paid by Kumtor to Centerra in 2013.
According to Centerra, such dividend complied with Kyrgyz laws and 2009 agreements governing the Kumtor project.
Last year, former prime minister Joomart Otorbayev suggested a 50/50 joint venture with Centerra was not in the country's interests and rumours pointing to an imminent nationalization of the mine, later denied by Kyrgyzstan authorities, spread out.
Otorbayev resigned later that month after failing to clinch the restructuring deal. His successor, Temir Sariyev, said at the time that resolving the issue would be among his priorities.
The vast open pit Kumtor gold mine is expected to produce 470,000-520,000 ounces at an all-in sustaining cost between $819-$908 per ounce this year.
The company said Kumtor’s operation were unaffected by the search.
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This chart shows actual China GDP growth highest since 2014
In March Chinese leaders detailed the country's 13th five-year plan running from 2016 – 2020 which doubles-down on a long-stated commitment to "double 2010 GDP by 2020”.
The 2020 GDP goal would require annual growth rates of 6.5% to go from a nominal $10 trillion last year to over $12 trillion in 2020. That's the equivalent of adding an economy the size of Switzerland's every year.
China's official GDP data released two weeks ago showed growth of 6.7%, boosted in no small measure by a raft of stimulus measures introduced by Beijing that has seen a number of metrics improve dramatically since the start of the year.
Manufacturing activity hit a more-than-one-year high, fixed asset investment and industrial output all improved while real estate statistics indicated stronger investment. Property prices shot up, imports of commodities hit monthly records and bank lending hit an all-time high.
"That is still much slower than the official figures will show but a strong growth rate for a country at China’s income level"
Skepticism about official Chinese growth figures abound, and most peg actual GDP expansion at a much lower clip.
Independent research house Capital Economics' measure of the Chinese economy uses a combination of weighted data including electricity usage, seaport cargoes, floor space under construction and passenger and freight traffic to gauge activity across a wide section of the economy.
According to Capital Economics research, China's GDP growth rates came close to dropping below 4% early last year and again at the beginning of 2016.
But since then growth has picked up markedly hitting 4.8% in the first quarter of the year.
That's the highest since Q4 2014 and according to China economists, Mark Williams and Julian Evans-Pritchard, all but one of the components of Capital Economics' China Activity Proxy showed strong improvement. While passenger traffic was weak it was mostly due to seasonal effects – last year in March numbers peaked because the Chinese New Year fell unusually late in 2015.
The authors of the report expect growth to accelerate further over the next couple of quarters on the back of monetary easing that is already in the pipeline and the ongoing front-loading of this year’s fiscal support.
"We continue to expect growth on our China Activity Proxy to average 5.5% this year. That is still much slower than the official figures will show but a strong growth rate for a country at China’s income level."
Source: Capital Economics
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Un robot humanoïde pour explorer l'océan par procuration
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CMI, SME partner with EduMine to provide premium courses to members
The Canadian Institute of Mining, Metallurgy and Petroleum (CIM) and the Society for Mining, Metallurgy & Exploration (SME) are partnering with EduMine — a leading provider of online training and education to the mining industry — in the roll-out of a premiere online professional development program to be offered to their members through dedicated “campuses.”
The premium courses will be jointly peer-reviewed by CIM and SME and will qualify for institutional certification.
Agreement is a milestone for the professional development of those in the mining industry.
Simon Holding, vice-president of Professional Development for InfoMine, and leader of EduMine, said the agreement was a “milestone” for the professional development of those in the mining industry, as it will raise the quality of education, training, and professional development currently available online.
Jean Vavrek, CIM Executive Director, said the members of the organization he heads had long asked for high-quality professional development courses, especially those that enable online participation. This, as CIM members are “very transient and often located in remote areas.”
“This unique partnership will allow the latest and most important mining concepts to be taught in the broadest form for all those wishing to advance their knowledge,” added SME’s Executive Director Dave Kanagy.
Following the peer-review process, both CIM and SME plan to launch their respective campuses in the summer or fall of 2016.
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Vale back in the black on higher iron ore prices, currency
Brazil’s Vale (NYSE:VALE), the world’s No. 1 iron ore miner, returned to profit in the first quarter, posting net income of $1.8 billion compared to a jaw-dropping $8.6bn loss in the last three months of 2015.
The Rio de Janeiro-based company’ recovery — first profit in three consecutive quarters — came despite a sustained deterioration in revenues: net operating revenues decreased to $5.7bn from $5.9bn in the fourth quarter.
While cheaper inputs and a recovery in iron ore prices is helping Vale, net debt climbed to $28 billion from $25 billion a year ago.
"Vale enters the second quarter with a fair amount of optimism, but we won't let down our guard," Chief Financial Officer Luciano Siani said in a video posted on company's website.
Vale attributed the turn round to higher iron ore prices, which climbed about 25% during the quarter, combined with lower freight rates. The firm said it was also helped by an 8.7% appreciation of the real against the dollar during the quarter.
While cheaper inputs and a recovery in prices is helping Vale’s efforts to preserve margins, net debt climbed to $27.7 billion from $24.8 billion a year ago.
Iron ore demand to remain strong
Vale expects demand for iron ore to remain strong this quarter thanks to stimulus from the Chinese government.
“We acknowledge the recent improvement in iron ore prices but are cognizant of market volatility, thus remaining fully committed to strengthening our balance sheet through the reduction of our net debt as previously informed,” it said in the statement.
Vale also said it expects cash flow to exceed capital spending once the company finishes work on a major expansion project at its $14 billion S11D mine in Brazil’s Amazon, to be completed in the second half of this year.
The company also note it slashed its costs and expenses by $880 million between the fourth and first quarters to $3.7bn while it also cut capital expenditure by $744m to $1.4bn.
Vale, which is looking to restart of its Rio Colorado potash project in Argentina, noted it wouldn’t be able to bring it into production without a partner to share the $1.5 billion investment required.
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SpaceX veut poser une capsule Dragon sur Mars en 2018
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Anglo American to sell Brazilian units to China Molybdenum for $1.5 billion
Beleaguered Anglo American (LON:ALL) said Thursday it has reached a deal to sell its niobium and phosphates businesses in Brazil to China Molybdenum Co. Ltd for $1.5 billion in cash, as part of its ongoing drive to offload noncore assets to reduce debt.
The niobium and phosphates division, which consists of mines, plants, processing facilities, chemical complexes and deposits, was considered one of Anglo’s more profitable businesses, although a modest contributor to the group’s overall profitability.
The niobium and phosphates division, which consists of mines, plants, processing facilities, chemical complexes and deposits, was one of Anglo’s more profitable businesses.
Together, the businesses generated earnings before interest and taxes of $119 million last year, or 5% of the group’s total of $2.2 billion. They could have turned Anglo into the world’s second-largest producer of niobium, a material used in high-temperature alloys for jet engines and lightweight steel for cars.
Despite potential, CEO Mark Cutifani listed the unit as one of the many the firm was seeking to offload as part of a major restructuring plans, detailed in February. Anglo American said then it would sell more than half of its mines to focus on a smaller group of operations that can turn a profit even in during commodities downturn.
The assets attracted interest from other miners including US fertilizer group Mosaic (NYSE:MOS), mining scene newcomer South32 (ASX, LON, JSE:S32), Switzerland's Eurochem and iron ore and nickel giant Vale SA (NYSE:VALE).
"The proceeds from this transaction … will enable us to continue to reduce our net debt towards our targeted level of less than $10 billion at the end of 2016," Cutifani said in a statement.
The deal is conditional upon regulatory approval from China, but Anglo said it had commitments from holders of 63% of the Chinese group’s shares to support the transaction, expected to close in the second half of this year.
Anglo American’s shares tumbled about 70% last year, making it the worst performer out of the U.K.’s blue chip FTSE 100 index.
But the stock has experienced an amazing recovery in 2016, climbing almost 142% and it was trading more than 4% up on Thursday afternoon to 727p. It still remains around 75% below its 2008 peak.
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Les animaux des forêts aussi influent sur le climat
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Les cancers de la thyroïde en France sont-ils liés à Tchernobyl ?
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Dossier : les conséquences de Tchernobyl
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En vidéo : le premier vrai hoverboard est disponible à la vente
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mercredi 27 avril 2016
Big boost for world's top diamond miner
Alrosa (MCX:ALRS), the world's top diamond producer by output, received a shot in the arm on Wednesday after ratings agency Moody's upgraded the miner's credit rating by two notches.
Moody's upgrade brings there debt rating of Alrosa which is 44%-owned by Russia with the republic of Yakutia holding 25% and its municipal districts another 8%, to just below investment grade.
Moody's said its decision reflects the fact that Alrosa's financial metrics "have remained strong versus global peers" and will remain robust, "owing to the company's status as a major producer and exporter of diamonds and weak rouble, the company's 29% share in the global diamond output, its low-cost reserve base, technical mining expertise, solid liquidity and conservative financial policy."
At the same time, Alrosa's rating factors in "the volatile demand and prices for diamonds and the company's exposure to the Russian macroeconomic environment, despite the high exports, given that its operating facilities are located in Russia."
Alrosa is being prepped for privatization and worth $8.4 billion in Moscow after rising by a third in value this year
Moody's says the reason the outlook the rating remains negative is based on state-ownership of the company and the potential downgrade of Russia's sovereign rating. At the same time the ratings agency also takes into account the "moderate probability of government support in the event of financial distress."
Alrosa earlier in April presented a rosy outlook for the diamond market with the release of its 2015 results.
The company said output climbed to 38.3 million carats, a 6% increase when compared to the previous year, thanks mainly to improvements at its Mir and Udachny underground mines, as well as the commissioning of Karpinskaya-1 and Botuobinskaya pipes and other high-potential deposits.
Alrosa, which together with Botswana-based De Beers controls almost two-thirds of the diamond market, also saw its reserves grow last year to 43.6 million carats. Despite poor global diamond market conditions, the company sold 3.8% more rough diamonds and increased sales 8% to $3.4 billion.
Alrosa, which along with fellow Russian resources firms Rosneft and Bashneft are among the most likely candidates for privatization this year, is worth $8.4 billion in Moscow (RUB 546 billion) after rising by a third in value this year.
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Roxgold's Burkina mine just got a whole lot richer
Shares in Roxgold Inc (CVE:ROG) raced higher on Wednesday after the company released the maiden resource at a satellite target at its ultra-high grade Yaramoko project in Burkina Faso.
The Toronto-based junior was changing hands at $1.17, up 5.4% on the Toronto Venture Exchange on the day, bringing year to date gains for the $417m counter to 70%.
Roxgold announced an initial resource estimate at Bagassi South, a satellite target called QV1 within 1.8 kilometres of Yaramoko's 55 Zone deposit. The inferred mineral resource was estimated at 563,000 tonnes at 12.14 grams of gold per tonne gold for 220,000 ounces of gold at a cut-off grade of 5.0 g/t Au. Roxgold said QV1 remains open down plunge.
The company is expected to pour first gold at the $111 million underground mine in West Africa in June. The underground mine will produce 99,500 ounces on average annually for an initial 7.4 years.
Before the QV1 resource which should add significantly to mine life and cash flow from Yaramoko, the project was already one the highest grade undeveloped deposits in the world containing probable reserves of 759,000 oz of gold at an average grade of a 11.83 g/t gold. It also boasts some of the lowest costs in the industry – all in sustaining costs of $590 an ounce.
Roxgold owns 100% of Yaramoko, but the government of Burkina Faso is entitled to 10%. Top shareholder is Appian Capital Advisory, a $750 million private equity firm formed by industry veterans last year.
Others juniors operating in the region include B2Gold (TSE:BTO), True Gold Mining (CVE:TGM) and Orezone Gold (TSE:ORE). Burkina Faso is the continent's fourth largest gold producer after Mali and has commissioned eight new mines over the past six years.
SEE ALSO: World's top 10 rookie gold mines
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Silver price jumps to near one-year high
On Wednesday, silver jumped to the highest since mid-May last year, as the metal continues to be rerated against the gold price and industrial metals demand gets a boost.
Silver futures in New York for delivery in May, the most active contract, added nearly 2% in early dealings to trade at $17.48 an ounce, before paring some of those gains by the close.
With a 26% advance year to date, silver is now outperforming gold as investors seek an alternative to gold following the yellow metal's disappointing retreat from 13-month highs hit in March.
Gold was last trading at $1,247 an ounce pushing the much-watched silver-gold ratio to just above 71. Deutsche Bank in a recent research note, said based on historical trends of the relationship between the two metals silver could break $20 an ounce in the near term:
"In our view, a near-term catalyst to drive gold higher is not obvious, but we think the metal remains well supported. The long – term gold silver ratio (since 1973) is 57.7. The more recent range is however 85 during the depths of the global financial crisis to 35 during the period of recovery and unprecedented Quantitative Easing.
"If gold stays relatively range bound at $1,250/oz, a silver rerating to 66.6 (the average 1983 – 2003), the silver could trade up to $18.8/oz, and a silver rerating to 61.1 (the average since 2003), then silver could trade as high as $20.5/oz."
The German investment bank is not alone in predicting a rosy outlook for the silver price. Analysts with Bank of America Merrill Lynch on Tuesday raised their 2016 average prices forecast for 2015 to $16.47 (year to date silver is averaging $15.18) saying silver's fundamentals look the strongest in years thanks to declining mine output and rising industrial demand.
Only around 30% of global output is from primary silver mines, less than the contribution of byproduct production at zinc and lead mines where a number of mine closures are in the offing. The bulk of silver usage is also in industrial applications including alloys, electronics, photovoltaic and for the production of ethylene oxide.
Some ETF investors have been switching from gold to silver and silver and large-scale futures speculators or "managed money" investors such as hedge funds are also bullish on the outlook for the metal.
Hedge funds dramatically raised bullish bets on silver last week pushing the overall market into another record net long position.
According to the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders data up to April 19 released on Friday speculators once again added to longs, building a bullish position of 378.6 million troy ounces or 11,773 tonnes, the highest level since at least 2006, when government first started to collect the data.
At the same time speculators cut their short positions which saw net longs positions grow to 10,311 tonnes, compared to a record net short of 1,610 tonnes recorded during the third quarter last year.
Source: Saxo Bank
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Barrick ‘is back’ chairman Thornton tells shareholders
Canada’s Barrick Gold (TSX, NYSE:ABX), the world’s largest producer of the precious metal by output, is claiming victory in its turnaround effort.
“Barrick is back,” executive chairman John Thornton said during the company’s annual general meeting, held Tuesday
Barrick Gold has reduced its debt load, reshuffle management and sold several assets.
Known for his flamboyant statements, he added: “We will not be satisfied with being a leading mining company. We mean to be nothing less than one of this century’s leading companies in any industry, in any region.”
In the last year, Barrick has reduced its debt load, reshuffle management and sold several assets.
The Toronto-based company’s share price has nearly doubled since January as it is finally being helped, instead of damaged, by current gold prices.
Barrick said it is now seeking a deal with a Silicon Valley company to help it generate more value from its mines.
Read John Thornton’s speech:
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Iron ore price plummets amid Chinese speculative mania
On Wednesday the Northern China benchmark iron ore price fell 5.6% to $60.50 per dry metric tonne (62% Fe CFR Tianjin port). Iron ore is now down more than 12% from 16-month highs hit last week according to data supplied by The Steel Index, but the steelmaking raw material still boasts a 41% rise in 2016 and a 60%-plus recovery from nine-year lows reached mid-December.
Given that it forges half the world’s steel and consumes more than 70% of the 1.3 billion tonne seaborne trade, the iron ore market is reliant, more than any other commodity, on the Chinese economy.
After authorities introduced trading curbs on stocks in 2015, many Chinese investors shifted their attention from the country’s equity markets to commodity derivatives
The surge in iron ore over the past four months has come mainly on the back rapidly rising steel prices in China and commodity investment fever that's gripping the mainland.
Copper fell victim to Chinese speculators a year ago when a hedge fund called Shanghai Chaos conducted a bear raid on copper futures. Attention has now shifted to iron ore and other metals including aluminum.
The first signs that the fundamentals of the physical iron ore trade was no longer much of a factor driving prices came on March 7. The price surged 19.5% in a single day – in absolute terms the day-on-day rise was roughly half of the price of contracted iron ore during the early 2000’s under the old ‘annual benchmark’ system, which ended in April 2010.
Since then volatility has only increased – nearly 240 million tonnes worth of Shanghai rebar futures contracted changed hands on a single day last week. Reuters points to the fact that it "was equivalent to around a third of China's steel production last year, not just of construction-destined rebar but of every imaginable type of steel product."
Circuit breakers on the Dalian Commodities Exchange to curb excessive price movement have been repeatedly triggered the past few weeks. After a very subdued launch in October 2013, volumes have sky-rocketed and last month daily trade in iron ore contracts surpassed one billion tonnes for the first time. That figure compares to the annual global seaborne trade of around 1.3 billion tonnes.
Stock and commodity exchanges are lightly regulated in China and of course not a lot of institutional history. The feeding frenzy have prompted Beijing to intervene in commodity markets in a replay of last year, when ill-fated attempts to stop a free-fall on equity markets trade in the majority of stocks were halted.
Chinese authorities’ record on market intervention is not good and speculative bubbles tend to blow up spectacularly inside the country
A defining feature of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is the high percentage of retail investors. A whopping 80% of investors buy and sell stocks using their own accounts. On US stock markets that figure is less than 14%. After authorities introduced trading curbs on stocks in 2015, many of these investors shifted their attention from the country’s equity markets to commodity derivatives.
While the plunge on the Shanghai and Shenzen stock exchange had limited effect elsewhere in the world, six out of the world’s ten most active commodity contracts are now traded in Shanghai, Dalian and Zhengzhou.
And as last year’s stock market fiasco showed, Chinese authorities’ record on market intervention is not good and speculative bubbles tend to blow up spectacularly inside the country.
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Vale gives its $11bn potash project in Argentina a second chance
Brazilian mining giant Vale (NYSE:VALE) is reviving $11 billion potash project in Argentina, mothballed in 2013 as the company began feeling the impact of falling commodity prices and fears of the asset’s nationalization grew.
At the time of abandoning the project the Rio de Janeiro-based miner was looking for up to $3 billion in tax breaks from the Argentine government for what would've been the country's largest foreign investment to offset soaring costs, but was refused.
The decision comes at a difficult times for potash miners worldwide, as prices are hovering around $240 a tonne, significantly down from more than $800 a tonne in 2008.
The miner, the world’s top iron ore producer, is currently looking for partners and investor to move ahead with the Potasio Rio Colorado potash project in the Mendoza province, originally pegged at $5.9 billion to construct.
According to local newspaper Diario Uno (in Spanish), Vale has scaled down the project and it now aim to produce 1.3 million tons of potash a year, down from the 4 million tons originally planned.
The company has also given up on the idea of building a 352km railway to ship output from the mine to the port of Bahia Blanca and, instead, will use trucks.
To move ahead, Vale will have to invest $1.5 billion up front and wait about a year to deliver the new technical specifications to the Argentine government.
The decision comes at a difficult times for potash miners worldwide, as prices are hovering around $240 a tonne, significantly down from more than $800 a tonne in 2008.
The project faced its first main setback in June 2011, when local authorities suspended works over claims that Vale had failed to meet requirements to employ and acquire supplies locally.
Vale’s decision to pull the plug angered the Argentine government to such an extent that the firm’s security department told project’s directors to leave the country shortly after because of "safety concerns".
The company acquired Rio Colorado from Anglo-Australian miner Rio Tinto in 2009. Start-up was scheduled for 2014, and mine life was expected to exceed 50 years. Average annual production is estimated at 2.4 million tonnes in phase 1 rising to 4.3 million tonnes per year.
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L'atmosphère de Mars était riche en oxygène
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Long-term oil shortfall to drag prices down again
While oil prices are speedily getting close to $50 per barrel, up about 60% from this year’s lows, a lack of spending on exploration and production that came as a result of weak prices are likely to trigger a fresh collapse of crude, a new report shows.
“Unless exploration results start to improve significantly, continued supply growth will become unsustainable,” says Wood Mackenzie.
According to Scotland-based analysis group Wood Mackenzie, the global oil market could face a supply shortfall of 4.5 million barrels a day within the next two decades. That’s down from today’s estimated surplus of around 2 million barrels a day.
“Unless exploration results start to improve significantly, continued supply growth will become unsustainable,” Patrick Gibson, director of global oil supply research at Wood Mackenzie, said in a statement.
The global energy consulting firm surveyed the more than 7,000 conventional oil fields discovered since 2000. It noticed that the volume of liquids found each year more than halved in the last decade as wells turned up less crude than anticipated. Volumes dropped from roughly 19 billion barrels in the 2008-11 period to around 8 billion barrels between 2012 and 2015, the report said.
While the situation is sustainable in the short and medium term, the researchers say that long-term there will be problems. Almost 90% of the oil from recent finds has yet to be produced, they say, and the industry continues to find squeeze more supplies from unconventional fields, such as U.S. shale formations and offshore, deep-water developments.
At the same time, the global oil industry slashed more than US$100 billion in spending last year and is in the midst of further cuts this year.
Oil prices have risen throughout April despite the failure of the world’s largest oil producing countries to agree to a deal earlier this month that would have helped the market recover from its chronic oversupply by freezing production.
Crude is now 25% higher than in the first week of April, and almost 70% higher than the 12-year lows of around $28 a barrel seen in late January.
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Stanford University decision to keep fossil fuels holdings triggers uproar
Stanford University's announcement on Monday that it will not divest its $22.2 billion endowment from fossil-fuel companies has campus activists and environmental groups up in arms.
The decision by the Stanford’s board of trustees comes almost two years after they announced the university was giving up investing in coal companies. But student and environmentalists have been pressing the university to extend that decision to other fossil fuels, including companies that specialize in producing crude from oil sands.
Stanford said it did not believe that a credible case can be made for divesting from the fossil fuel industry until there are competitive and readily available alternatives.
"We believe the long-term solution is for all of us to reduce our consumption of fossil fuel resources and develop effective alternatives," Stanford’s board said in a statement. "Because achieving these goals will take time, and given how integral oil and gas are to the global economy, the trustees do not believe that a credible case can be made for divesting from the fossil fuel industry until there are competitive and readily available alternatives."
They will, however, set up a climate task force to gather ideas from across the Stanford community to address climate change.
The board also said the university has taken steps to reduce energy use on campus and make use of more renewables.
Student advocacy group Fossil Free Stanford said around 800 students and faculty members have signed pledges to withhold donations to the university until it fully divests from fossil fuels.
It also announced that over 100 students will protest a scheduled speech on Wednesday by Stanford President John Hennessy.
Popular among students
The topic of divesting from fossil fuels has been a popular one in recent years among college students, who have protested at campuses around the US and beyond. This week the University of Ottawa became the first university in Canada to agree to shift all its holdings away from fossil fuel companies.
Earlier this month, Yale University became the first Ivy League school to partially do the same, by announcing it had divested less than $10 million of its $25.6 billion endowment from three unnamed fossil fuel producers.
Other institutions that have divested their holdings in recent years include the University of California, Hampshire College, Pitzer College, and College of the Atlantic.
Cornell University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Harvard University are among those that have rejected demands to divest.
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Le réchauffement climatique fait verdir la Terre
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Adani’s $12bn Carmichael project hit with yet another lawsuit
Indian mining giant Adani is facing another court battle over its plans to build its $12bn (A$16.5bn) Carmichael coal and rail project mine in Australia, which is set to be the country’s biggest coal mine.
Now the company is facing an appeal to the Queensland’s government decision earlier this month to grant Adani all the necessary licences to begin construction.
The Land Services of Coast and Country filed the judicial review Wednesday in the Supreme Court of Queensland, claiming the state’s environment department failed to ensure the proposed mine was an ecologically sustainable development, as outlined in the Environmental Protection Act.
Adani has said legal costs and cutting its way through the environmental hurdles had so far cost it $120 million.
Two weeks ago, a group representing the indigenous people Wangan and Jagalingou (W&J), traditional owners of the land where the project would be built, also challenged in court the leases issued by the Queensland government.
At this point, some are beginning to wonder whether the mega mine and rail project will ever be built.
Since first proposed, Carmichael has faced relentless opposition from organizations ranging from the United Nations to green groups fighting new coal projects, which has scared banks from lending to the project.
In August last year, a federal court had revoked the actual approval, citing environmental concerns.
But the project was later approved by the Australian government, under what environment minister Greg Hunt called “the strictest conditions in Australian history."
Adani has said legal costs and cutting its way through the environmental hurdles had so far cost it $120 million.
According to official estimations, Carmichael will contribute $2.97bn each year to Queensland’s economy and has the potential to create 6,400 new jobs: around 2,500 construction positions and 3,900 operational posts.
Galilee Basin coal export projects map. (Courtesy of GalileeBasin.org)
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LHC : les collisions de particules reprennent au Cern
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En vidéo : des Google Glass aident les malvoyants avec leur smartphone
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Lettre d'information : toute l'actu scientifique en abonnement gratuit
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Lait radioactif près de Tchernobyl : un scandale sanitaire en Biélorussie ?
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mardi 26 avril 2016
Iron ore price: Only question now is how rapid the fall
On Tuesday the Northern China benchmark iron ore price lost 1.4% to $64.10 per dry metric tonne (62% Fe CFR Tianjin port), down more than 6% from 16-month highs hit last week according to data supplied by The Steel Index.
The steelmaking raw material still boasts a near 50% rise year to date and an almost three-quarters surge from nine-year lows reached mid-December.
Given that it forges half the world’s steel and consumes more than 70% of the 1.3 billion tonne seaborne trade, the iron ore market is reliant, more than any other commodity, on the Chinese economy.
The surge in iron ore over the past four months has come mainly on the back rapidly rising steel prices in China – up by a fifth just in April in never-seen-before volume – coupled with a reduction in output from domestic miners which have borne the brunt of the flood of new supply from Australia and Brazil.
Chinese authorities’ record on market intervention is not good and speculative bubbles inside the country tend to blow up spectacularly
Both these price drivers are in danger of reversing, potentially turning what has been a fairly orderly decline into a white knuckle one.
The spike in Shanghai rebar futures prices – 20% in three weeks in unheard of trading volumes – have prompted Beijing to intervene on the markets once again.
After authorities introduced trading curbs on stocks in 2015, many Chinese investors shifted their attention from the country’s equity markets to commodity derivatives. While the plunge on the Shanghai and Shenzen stock exchange had limited effect elsewhere in the world, six out of the world’s ten most active commodity contracts are now traded in Shanghai, Dalian and Zhengzhou.
And as last year’s stock market fiasco showed, Chinese authorities’ record on market intervention is not good and speculative bubbles tend to blow up spectacularly inside the country.
The country’s steel industry association has been consistent in saying any rise in production and prices would be unsustainable making it much harder to believe the recent frenzy was inspired by fundamentals.
Don't expect support from Chinese iron ore miners either. Domestic output has been scaled back dramatically, falling below the target of Beijing policy makers to keep local ore utilization at 25% of the total. According to Platts Mineral Value Service, a Munich-based iron ore and steel research company, domestic iron ore's contribution to the Chinese steel market has declined from 36% of market share in 2010 to around 22% in 2015.
The aggregate 35 million tonnes in possible lost production hardly changes the oversupply picture
Domestic iron ore output from an industry plagued by fragmentation, high costs and low grades (only around 20% Fe) has halved since 2013 and may dip below 200 million tonnes Fe 62% equivalent this year. Platts MVS says there may be as many as 840 zombie companies being propped up by local governments to save jobs and due to captive production.
Even if more Chinese mines shut down and the shift to seaborne ore continues, the seaborne market is not exactly short of tonnage. All-in-all new seaborne supply set to increase by approximately 245 million tonnes by end of 2018 according to Platts MVS.
The big three – Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton – last week lowered future production guidance, but the aggregate 35 million tonnes in possible lost production hardly changes the oversupply picture and the giants would still hit actual annual output records even at these lowered levels.
Citigroup's analysts expect around an additional 75 million tonnes of iron ore this year to be shipped out of Australia, more than a third of which would come from Roy Hill. The Gina Rinehart mine has brought forward ramp-up plans and now expects to be producing at full annualized capacity of 55 million tonnes by the end of this year. Later this year, Rio's board is likely to give the go-ahead to build Silvergrass which would add another 20 million tonnes of high-grade, low cost ore to the company's Pilbara output.
The investment bank also forecasts 16 million tonnes of new iron ore supply from Brazil this year. And that's even before Vale’s flagship S11D project in the Carajas complex comes on stream. The world's top producer said the giant mine with annual capacity of more than 90 million tonnes is 80% complete and is expected to start shipping by the end of 2016.
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How to increase a mining engineer's bandwidth
Dassault Systèmes is pushing into three dimensional modeling to allow users to more quickly understand data, says CEO Raoul Jacquand.
"The human being was designed with 3D bandwidth and as a result we apprehend things much better when we see them in 3D," says Jacquand who spoke with MINING.com in March at PDAC in Toronto.
"That is true for us in our everyday life, but it is also the truth in the workplace. In the case of a geologist or a mining engineer, they do a much better job when they can actually monitor their assets in 3D and have a 3D visualization of the mine.
"3D is not only about creating a three-dimensional representation of an object, but it is also a way to represent processes and all the various dimensions that come about. It's a very powerful tool."
Transcript has been edited for clarity.
MINING.com: Who are you?
Raoul Jacquand: Good morning Michael, my name is Raoul Jacquand. I am the head of GEOVIA, which is a brand with Dassault Systèmes, looking after mining solutions.
MINING.com: What does Dassault Systèmes do?
Raoul Jacquand: Dassault Systèmes is a global software company that specializes in 3D modeling, design simulation and creating virtual universes. It helps our customers across a wide set of industries to foster innovation.
MINING.com: Can you tell me why 3D modeling is important?
Raoul Jacquand: Well the human being was designed with 3D bandwidth and as a result we apprehend things much better when we see them in 3D. That is true for us in our everyday life, but it is also the truth in the workplace. In the case of a geologist or a mining engineer, they do a much better job when they can actually monitor their assets in 3D and have a 3D visualization of the mine. 3D is not only about creating a three-dimensional representation of an object, but it is also a way to represent processes and all the various dimensions that come about. It's a very powerful tool.
MINING.com: Can you tell me some successes with 3D modeling?
Raoul Jacquand: Well, 3D modelings have been in the heart of the GEOVIA product suite. GEOVIA was the result of Dassault Systèmes acquiring Gemcom (International), by the way. As a result we have established a strong install base with our 3D modeling products. So in the case of mining, it's been there. However, use has been limited to modelling of the ore bodies themselves. The journey that we would like to take our customers is 3D conceptualization of the whole mining operation. And this is something we have ambition to realize because it has been proven to work in other industries, such as automotive, aerospace and global manufacturing.
MINING.com: Where would that journey be? What would be the other types of applications to do that type of modeling?
Raoul Jacquand: We start with the ore body, which is the very beginning of any mining operations, but we will also use 3D to improve how scheduling is carried out, how mining production is monitored. It's the chain from the resource that’s in the subsurface all the way to the market. That's what we call the 3D EXPERIENCE Mine.
MINING.com: What is a platform and why is important?
Raoul Jacquand: The platform is the cornerstone of our offering to clients. The platform is essentially a business platform. It's an enabler for innovations. It's a way to help our customers navigate through the complexity of their operations and that platform is not something that is a substitute itself to the myriad of applications that our customers already have. The platform is a way to consolidate everything into a single representation. We like to call it the “single version of the truth”, because this is where—through a collaborative system—all the stake holders in a given workflow will have access to the same date. This is a big difference to traditional systems, which in some way claim they have digitalized things and have basically done the migration towards electronic. Digital is more than electronic, because electronic documents are static entities. A digital environment insures that any change in real time gets registered, recorded in a single entity, a single instance and that allows for true collaboration and avoids a number of inefficiencies, which we have seen too often.
MINING.com: How are you taking along the customers?
Raoul Jacquand: Well, we like to take them on this journey by having them embrace innovations. In the mining sector there is a natural resistance to change. It's slow to adopt new technologies. We understand that because we operate in very tough conditions. They have a number of constraints, which other industries have not had. Nevertheless, I think there is a sense of urgency. People know that innovation is not a question of "if". It is really a question of "when", and the sooner the better. We have to be credible and bring them with proof points and some concrete evidence that this innovative approach—fuelled by 3D—yields substantial and measurable benefits.
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Forget the Saudis, US will win the oil price war
Crude oil prices continued to surprise on Tuesday, with the US benchmark adding another 3% to $44.20 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate is now up a 65% since hitting 13-year lows below $27 a barrel February 11. It's a performance only bettered by the globe's second most traded bulk commodity – iron ore.
But like analysts of the steelmaking raw material, many in the industry have been surprised by the extent of the rally, consistently calling the oil price lower. The blame for the cloudy outlook for crude is mostly being laid at the door of Saudi-Arabia.
US spare capacity may be close to rivaling OPEC’s current spare capacity
After the collapse of the Doha talks to freeze production and amid a spat with the US over terrorism, the world's top producer has threatened a scorched earth policy when it comes to maintaining and growing its market share.
But there is an alternative view out there that argues that the US, more than the Saudis, will control the direction of the market and in the event of an all-out price war holds the commanding position.
That's thanks to astonishing technological improvements in the US. The shale revolution that drove natural gas production between 2010 and 2015, found its way into the oil field, resulting in a 57% jump in US crude production in just three short years to peak at 9.7 million barrels per day in April 2015.
Source: Platts Analytics NG Market Call Long Term, NGL Market Call, and Crude Oil Market Call
And it's not just a crude story: In the last decade, the US has introduced 8.3 MMBoe/d (million barrels of energy equivalent per day) into the global market when one considers production of crude, natural gas and natural gas liquids according to research by Platts Analytics.
Suzanne Minter, Manager of Oil and Gas Consulting for Platts Analytics on Tuesday testified before the US Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee about where the global oil market is heading.
Minter said "the time and the rate in which this energy entered the market appears to have stressed the system in ways unimagined" making the US producer "the marginal supplier and price setter into the global market":
Texas alone could introduce 1.25m barrels into the global market – on average within just 30 days
After 14 months of persistently low prices, U.S. producers have entered 2016 with estimated capital expenditures cuts of 40%, more than 6,500 drilled but uncompleted wells in inventory, and find themselves operating at or near cash costs.
"Drilled but uncompleted wells hold reserves that can be brought on line in a short period of time, thereby defining the concept of spare capacity. It is plausible to believe that U.S. spare capacity may be close to rivaling OPEC’s current spare capacity. However, we believe that the prices needed to incentivize the U.S. producer to complete their drilled but uncompleted wells may be much lower than global competitors believe or would like it to be.
"The near term oil recovery will be more than likely be tenuous and ebb and flow, rather than occur in a linear fashion, as all parties involved figure out how to balance supply growth. However, due to spare capacity and the unique economic environment which drives producer activity, it may very well be that the US producer is best positioned to lead the recovery and bolster economic growth.”
Platts Analytics research shows that Texas alone could introduce 1.25 MMB/d of oil into the global market and can do so in a short space of time – on average just 30 days. That's more oil than the Saudis have threatened to flood the market with and Texas could also bring crude to market at a more rapid pace.
Over and above resources and technology, the US has another powerful advantage: dynamic markets. The country has roughly 9,000 different entities producing energy. Saudi Arabia's oil wealth – indeed its whole economy – is now in the hands of a 30-year old prince.
Minter said that "while each producer will behave differently than the next, it seems realistic pricing in the mid-$40 – $50 per barrel range they will bring incremental volumes back into the market place. Well, that's where we got to today.
Source: Platts/Platts Analytics Oil Market Call April, 2016
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Nova Scotia's proposed overhaul of mining rules met with criticism, demands
Environmentalists are up in arms against Nova Scotia’s — Canada's biggest Atlantic province — new Mineral Resources Act as they say the legislation won’t do enough to prevent mining on privately protected lands, or address concerns about quarries.
The act, also known as Bill 149, is the first overhaul of the current rules since 1990 and it was written to support responsible mineral resource management in the province.
According to Natural Resources Minister Lloyd Hines, who introduced it in the House of Assembly on April 14, the proposed ruling will cut red tape for industry and government and make it easier and less expensive to manage exploration licences.
"Our new legislation strikes the right balance between stimulating the economy – particularly in rural Nova Scotia – and managing our natural resources," Hines said in a statement.
Authorities say the proposed ruling will cut red tape, making it easier and less expensive to manage exploration licences.
But the Nature Conservancy of Canada, the Nova Scotia Nature Trust and the Sierra Club Canada Foundation disagree. They claim that of the 5.5-million hectares of land in Nova Scotia, about 18,000 is privately protected, and that proposed legislation would allow the minister to grant mineral rights or licences on them, without consulting them.
"The ability of the minister to simply grant mineral rights for exploration or active mining over our property doesn't make any sense on so many levels,” Craig Smith, the conservancy's program director told CBC News.
"So what we're talking about is bringing this out, into the light, and creating a process that everyone can understand and everyone can see clearly."
Another issue environmental groups are not happy about is the fact the act doesn’t address quarries, which is the sub-sector that has grown the most in recent years.
According to a 2014 survey of recent quarry activity in Nova Scotia, total area currently and recently used for pit and quarry activity is 5,863 hectares. In 2012, around 12.5 million tonnes of crushed rock and sand was produced, compared to around five million tonnes in 1985.
Challenged industry
On top of low commodity prices, Nova Scotia’s mining industry, which employs about 5,500 people, faces major challenges including the increasing power of social activists. In 2014, the province yield to pressure and became one of the first in Canada to indefinitely ban high-volume hydraulic fracturing (or fracking) for onshore oil and gas. Nova Scotia also has gained the reputation of being a poor place to invest.
In the last two years, authorities have been promising more support, mostly in the form of a fuel tax rebate for off-road vehicles used in mining and quarrying operations, which would save the industry $2.6 million a year. So far, however, the province has not delivered.
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Freeport axes oil and gas workforce as it posts sixth straight loss
Freeport McMoRan (NYSE:FCX), the No. 1 listed copper miner, is cutting its oil and gas workforce by 25% as it struggles to reduce its over $20 billion debt.
The US miner loss in the first three months of the year — Freeport’s sixth straight quarterly loss — nearly doubled due to limited demand for some of its main commodities, including copper.
Freeport expects to post a charge of about $40 million related to the restructuring of its oil and gas unit.
The Phoenix-based company logged a net loss of $4.2 billion for the first quarter, or $3.35 per share, widening from a loss of almost $2.5 billion in the same quarter a year ago. Revenue fell 15.1% to $3.53 billion, it said.
Freeport, which announced last year that it would either spin off or sell its oil and gas business, said it expected to take a $40 million charge in the second quarter related to job cuts and restructuring of the energy operations.
The company, which is the US biggest miner by market value, has been under pressure from weak commodity prices and activist investor Carl Icahn, who wants the company to lower costs and reduce as much as $20 billion in debt.
CEO Richard Adkerson said Freeport’s asset divestments have totalled $1.4 billion year-to-date.
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Teck Resources posts better-than-expected profit as costs drop
Teck Resources (TSX:TCK.B)(NYSE:TCK) reported Tuesday better-than- expected first quarter results, as Canada’s largest diversified miner cut costs to offset the impact of weak steelmaking coal, copper and zinc prices.
The Vancouver-based company, the No.1 producer of steel-making coal in North America, said overall profit increased 38% to Cdn$94 million (about $74 million), or 16 cents a share, in the first three months of the year. This compares to Cdn$68 million a year earlier.
Teck's series of drastic cost-cutting measures are paying off.
Lower prices for Teck’s key commodities were partly offset by a stronger U.S. dollar, the company said. This, as the miner sells its output in U.S. dollars, but most of its expenses are incurred in local currencies, particularly the Canadian dollar.
“Our operations performed well by reducing our costs while maintaining production volumes," Chief Executive Officer Don Lindsay said in the statement. “Notwithstanding that the commodity cycle continues to be challenging, we are encouraged by the change in direction in steelmaking coal and zinc prices."
Coal
When it comes to coal, Teck said it has reached agreements with most of its customers for the second quarter, based on a quarterly benchmark of $84 per ton of the steelmaking variety.
The company, which expects sales to be at least 6.5 million tons, noted it received, in average, $75 per ton in the firs quarter, down from $106 a year earlier.
As most miners, Teck has implemented a series of drastic cost-cutting measures in the past year, including cutting over 1,000 jobs and reducing its semi-annual dividend rate to 5 cents a share in December.
Also last year, Teck decided to partner with Vancouver-based Goldcorp (TSX:G), (NYSE:GG) and combine their Relincho and El Morro copper-and-gold projects in Chile. And in October it agreed to sell future silver production on its Antamina mine in Peru to Franco-Nevada (NYSE:FNV).
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Barrick Gold swings to quarterly loss, but trims debt further
Canada’s Barrick Gold (TSX, NYSE:ABX), the world’s largest producer of the precious metal by output, swung to a loss in the first three months of the year, as asset sales impacted production and realized gold prices fell.
The Toronto-based miner, however, reported quite a progress in terms of cutting its debt and reducing costs, trimmed debt by US$842 million since January. The figure puts Barrick closer to reaching its goal of reducing debt by $2 billion this year.
The loss for the period was $83 million, or 7 cents per share. In the same quarter last year, the company made $57 million.
The gold miner also maintained its 2016 production guidance while lowering its all-in sustaining cost guidance to between $760 and $810 an ounce (down from $775 to $825 an ounce).
The loss for the period was $83 million, or 7 cents per share, which according to Barrick was the result of one-time foreign currency losses. In the same quarter last year, the company made $57 million. On an adjusted basis, it earned 11 cents per share.
The company’s share price has nearly doubled since January as it is finally being helped, instead of damaged, by current gold prices.
The precious metal has defied expectations and steadily recovered this year from lows of about $1,050 an ounce in mid-December to roughly $1,234 an ounce Tuesday.
Later today the miner is hosting its annual meeting, after which former fund manager and current business performance chief, Catherine Raw, will assume as the firm’s new chief financial officer.
Shareholders hope that Raw, Barrick’s fourth CFO in only five years, can make a company’s shift from prizing output over profitability to place more emphasis on investors’ returns.
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Eldorado to sell Chinese gold mine for $300 million
Canada’s Eldorado Gold (TSX:ELD) (NYSE:EGO) has signed an agreement to sell its 82% stake the Jinfeng mine in China to a wholly-owned subsidiary of China National Gold Group for US$300 million in cash.
The company’s president and CEO Paul Wright said China National Gold has been its minority partner at Jinfeng for over 14 years and is the logical buyer for the operation, which he says has “consistently delivered solid results” since it began production in 2007.
The Vancouver-based miner, which also has operations in Turkey, Greece, Romania and Brazil, noted it continues evaluating the potential of monetizing its Chinese assets, adding it has been in discussions with various parties.
The deal is expected to close in the third quarter of the year and is subject to various approvals.
More to come…
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